A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
